Tuesday, December 9, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened at $11,657.5/mt overnight. At the beginning of the session, its price center gradually rose, touching a high of $11,707/mt, then fell straight to a low of $11,583/mt, and finally closed at $11,675/mt, up 0.09%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest reached 342,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2601 contract opened at 92,820 yuan/mt overnight. It touched a high of 93,040 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of 92,020 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 92,400 yuan/mt, down 0.04%. Trading volume reached 77,000 lots, and open interest reached 222,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On December 8, Peru's Congress voted to extend the validity of the so-called "reinvestment license" until the end of next year. This move was supported by President Jose Jeri but opposed by the formal mining industry.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On December 8, SMM's spot premium for #1 copper cathode against the front-month 2512 contract was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 240 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 130 yuan/mt, down 40 from the previous day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price was 92,040-92,560 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2512 contract retreated after a rapid rise and continued to climb in the late session to 92,480 yuan/mt. The contango between the front-month and the next month was 100-50 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract was 1,400 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, spot transactions are still expected to be above parity. However, as copper prices continue to rise, downstream order volumes weaken, and premiums are expected to be under pressure.
(2) Guangdong: On December 8, the spot premium for Guangdong's #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 60 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt to a discount of 30 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price for Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 92,290 yuan/mt, up 1,135 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price for SX-EW copper was 92,180 yuan/mt, up 1,140 yuan/mt from the previous day. Overall, as copper prices kept rising, users only purchased as needed, and suppliers had to lower premiums to sell, resulting in poor overall trading.
(3) Imported copper: On December 8, warrant prices were $34-46/mt, QP December, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous day. B/L prices were $40-52/mt, QP December, with the average price unchanged from the previous day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $0-14/mt, QP December, with the average price unchanged from the previous day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in the first half of December.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on December 8, the futures closing price was 92,480 yuan/mt, up 650 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average spot premium/discount was 130 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 1,500 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 82,700-82,900 yuan/mt, up 1,500 yuan/mt from the previous day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,054 yuan/mt, down 1,457 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,450 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, since the beginning of December, secondary copper rod producers in Hubei have indicated that the invoice issuance quota is limited to a certain amount, mostly used for invoices required for previous order deliveries. Therefore, production in Hubei still cannot operate normally in December.
(5) Inventory: On December 5, LME copper cathode inventory increased by 2,000 mt to 164,550 mt; on December 8, SHFE warrant inventory decreased by 890 mt to 29,956 mt.
Price: On the macro front, Fed Chairman candidate Hassett stated that future interest rate cuts would depend on economic data. Hawkish market expectations pushed the US dollar higher, putting copper prices under pressure. Additionally, the CPC Central Committee Politburo indicated it would continue to implement proactive fiscal policy and appropriately accommodative monetary policy, with optimistic economic expectations providing support for copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of imported material remained tight, while domestic material arrivals were normal; demand side, downstream purchasing sentiment continued to be weak. Inventory side, as of Thursday, December 8, SMM's national mainstream copper cathode inventory increased by 1,400 mt from Monday to 160,300 mt. Overall, copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
